By: Nur El-Mahrakawy

The Access to Knowledge for Development Center (A2K4D) at the American University in Cairo’s School of Business is the North African Hub of the Open AIR network, within which our goal is to engage in interdisciplinary research on the role of knowledge, openness and digital technologies in promoting human development. In 2013, the Open AIR network launched “Knowledge and Innovation in Africa: Scenarios for the Future,” a groundbreaking initiative that challenged common assumptions about the future of knowledge and innovation on the African continent. Recognizing Africa's diversity, the report presented three potential scenarios for how these transformations might unfold by 2035. 

The scenarios outline distinct futures for Africa’s innovation landscape. The first scenario, “Wireless Engagement,” envisions a world where formal African businesses connect with the global service economy through standardized intellectual property protections. In this scenario, young business leaders and a growing middle class hold their governments accountable. However, those who are “uneducated or under-resourced” and unable to meet uniform technical, legal, and socio-economic standards risk being left behind. The second scenario, “Informal - the New Normal,” describes a vibrant network of small-scale enterprises that thrive on informal knowledge-sharing. In this context, individuals who struggle to build local relationships or wield social influence may find themselves at a disadvantage in the continent’s dynamic economy. Lastly, “Sincerely Africa” emphasizes the revival of traditional knowledge, encouraging innovators to adopt culturally relevant policies for sustainability in response to global instabilities and external pressures. In this scenario, “outsiders lacking community roots or shared identities” are excluded from social, political, and economic growth.

In 2024, marking the halfway point to these envisioned futures, the Open AIR network hosted the workshop “Signposting to Future Scenarios: Reflecting on Knowledge and Innovation in Africa at the Halfway to 2035” in Wakefield, Canada. The event, held from September 23-25, aimed to evaluate how some of the predicted scenarios have unfolded, identify new challenges and opportunities, and critically assess the use of foresight scenarios as a methodological tool for shaping policy and strategy decisions. By harnessing foresight and collective learning, the workshop sought to cultivate a forward-thinking mindset essential for navigating the complexities of the future. The methodology of scenario building enables participants to overcome cognitive biases—such as confirmation bias, availability bias, and overconfidence—thereby allowing for the creation of plausible and relevant narratives about the future that can inform better decision-making today. In this light, scenarios can serve as a “calling card” to spark discussions about the drivers of change in innovation across Africa.

On the first day of the workshop, Shirin Elahi, Managing Director at Scenarios Architecture, emphasized the transformative power of foresight, urging participants to ask "what if" instead of "if only." She described foresight as a means of viewing multiple perspectives, creating “a place where people can meet to share their dreams and fears about the future.” Elahi explained that while hindsight provides valuable lessons, it cannot solely guide us forward. Quoting Eric Hoffer, she stated, "In times of change, learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." This underscores the critical role of learners who anticipate change and advocate for ethical practices by reflecting on historical lessons.

In this context, Jeremy de Beer, Law Professor at the University of Ottawa, noted that the reflections from the Open AIRworkshop serve as “an innovative monitoring and evaluation practice.” He emphasized that “foresight is the gift that keeps on giving,” highlighting its cumulative value over time, even as we navigate the present. Echoing this sentiment, Dick Kawooya, Associate Professor at the University of South Carolina School of Information Science, and Ikechi Mgbeoji, Professor of Law at Osgoode Hall Law School and Partner at Blackfriars LLP, advocated for moving away from “linear thinking.” This call for broader perspectives was further supported by Bassem Awad, Visiting Associate Professor and Director of the IPIT Area of Concentration at the Faculty of Law, Western University, and Kow Abekah-Wonkyi, Associate Lawyer at CQ Legal, who argued for the necessity of focusing on “the future which is already here” rather than being confined to the present. Chidi Oguamanam, Law Professor at the University of Ottawa and Research Chair in Sustainable Bio-Innovation, Indigenous Knowledge Systems, and Global Knowledge Governance, along with Alex Addisalem, a Ph.D. Candidate in Law at the University of Ottawa, aptly noted that “foresight allows us to identify the trends our children will deal with in the future. They are not static; they are dynamic.”

Caroline Ncube, Professor and DSI-NRF SARChI Research Chair in Intellectual Property, Innovation, and Development at the University of Cape Town, and Fernando Perini, Team Leader for Education and Science at the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), emphasized that “foresight should not be an activity done once; it should be an ongoing process.” Complementing this view, Alexandra Mogyoros, Assistant Professor at the Lincoln Alexander School of Law at Toronto Metropolitan University, and Erika Kraemer Mbula, Professor at the University of Johannesburg, highlighted that foresight is not just a “tool” but also a “method of critical thinking” that can promote a shared vision for global innovation governance. Yvonne Ndelle, Program Manager and Research Fellow at Open AIR, and Tobias Schonwetter, Associate Professor and Director of the Intellectual Property Unit at the University of Cape Town, asserted that the value of foresight lies in its grounding in research. Fraser Reilly-King, a Senior Policy Analyst at the IDRC, concluded the workshop by celebrating the collective understanding shaped over time by the Open A.I.R network.

The workshop served as a vital platform for reflection and dialogue about the continent’s future, revisiting the scenarios outlined in 2013 allowed participants to interrogate the use of foresight as a methodological tool and a catalyst for collective learning. The insights shared by experts underscored the necessity of anticipating change, embracing diverse perspectives, and recognizing the dynamic nature of challenges and opportunities ahead. One key outcome that arose out of the conference was a collective agreement on the need for additional resources such as policy briefs, research papers, and short videos that apply the scenarios to concrete challenges and to make these outputs available in the public domain to facilitate capacity building.  As Africa navigates its path toward 2035, the continuous application of foresight will be essential in shaping inclusive and sustainable policies that empower communities, foster innovation, and ultimately enhance the continent’s resilience in an ever-evolving global landscape. The collective knowledge generated through such workshops not only enriches our understanding but also acts as a guiding beacon for future endeavors in promoting knowledge and innovation across Africa.